Internationalization is facing trials and it is unreasonable to say that "crisis winners"

Internationalization is facing a test The renminbi has become unjustified as a "crisis winner" This week, the global economy shrouded in the shadow of the European debt crisis. Due to the large increase in default risk of Greek government bonds, the exchange rate of the euro against other major currencies fell sharply for several days in a row, triggering investors to stir up the Swiss franc, which had previously maintained stable currency values. The market panic-looking mood of seeking safe-haven currencies is spreading rapidly. There are foreign media and even the author, the renminbi is seen as a "safe haven" for investors to escape the current round of debt crisis. However, in the face of the turbulent economic crisis, can the Chinese economy be able to do its own thing? Under the influence of international capital, can the renminbi avoid shocks and become big winners?

Debt crisis accelerates the appreciation of the renminbi "The external factor that the appreciation of the renminbi is accelerating is the weakness of the dollar." Han Fuling, director of the Department of Applied Finance at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with this reporter that although the US Congress passed the bill, it raised the prescribed debt ceiling 14.3. Trillion dollar, but the long-term trend of dollar devaluation is still irreversible. The controversy surrounding the US dollar exchange rate, ultra-low interest rates, and quantitative easing are still essential. The essence is whether the US economy can really recover.

"The appreciation of the renminbi itself is not a good thing," Xie Taifeng, deputy director of the School of Finance of the Capital University of Economics and Business, told the reporter in an interview with the reporter that the current devaluation of the US dollar and the euro, while the appreciation of the renminbi is a good thing on the surface, but it is hidden behind it. The pressure for the yuan to continue to appreciate. This will lead to a large influx of hot money, an increase in foreign exchange reserves, and the introduction of inflation, which will further stimulate the appreciation of the renminbi, creating a vicious circle.

As China’s two largest export markets, the weak economy of the United States and the European Union will lead to a decline in its consumption level. China’s foreign exports, which are dominated by processing trade, will surely face greater impact. Xie Taifeng believes that the appreciation of the renminbi has shifted the economic losses brought about by the US debt crisis. At present, the export-oriented SMEs in China are facing multiple attacks on rising prices, labor, and raw materials. The rise in the renminbi exchange rate will increase the living space of these enterprises. The smaller.

The internationalization of the renminbi is facing a test In fact, nearly half of China’s nearly 3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserves are US dollar assets, and only one US Treasury bond has reached 1.16 trillion US dollars. The continuous appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar means that the books of China’s huge dollar assets have shrunk. To completely get rid of the plight of the people, the internationalization of the renminbi will be the only way for the renminbi’s future development.

In response, Li Daokui, a member of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, pointed out at the Summer Davos Forum that the internationalization of the renminbi not only can reduce China’s international trade costs and financing costs, but also has internationally minted revenues, but also the Chinese economy. There is a major strategic significance of the overall situation. He said that the internationalization of the renminbi will make China a leader in monetary policy adjustment rather than a passive follower, so that it can better cope with the impact of international financial fluctuations and allow China to eventually become a decisive economic entity in the world.

However, the internationalization of the renminbi is not easy, and the risks it faces will test China’s economic structure and management system. Xia Bin, director of the Institute of Finance Research of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the internationalization of the renminbi means that the role of the currency function in areas and areas will expand, and will bring about a certain impact on China's monetary policy, and it will inevitably touch the capital account and capital market. The issue of opening to the outside world. In order to reduce risks, the key is to promote the marketization of domestic finance as soon as possible.

Xia Bin believes that to accelerate the process of RMB regionalization, we must make every effort to allow the RMB to go overseas, so that the overseas RMB can be used for deposit and loan, settlement and payment, asset management, investment, and exchange rate hedging, just like other freely convertible currencies. All-round business, forming its own certain market transactions, cycle scale. At the same time, overseas institutions and natural persons must be allowed to enjoy the benefits of China’s high economic growth through the renminbi convertible channel allowed by the Chinese government.

There are no winners in the crisis. Nowadays, there is no winner. No matter whether it is a developed economy in Europe or the United States or an emerging economy, the impact of the debt crisis cannot be spared. China is also undergoing tremendous tests in the crisis.

Xie Taifeng believes that the Greek debt crisis has threatened the survival of the euro because Greece has lost currency sovereignty. If European countries do not assist Greece, once Greece fails to support it, it may withdraw from the euro zone. Italy and Spain also face the same debt problem, and the euro will not be able to rely on France and Germany. If the euro does not exist, it will further strengthen the position of the U.S. dollar so that the entire currency system loses one currency that competes with the U.S. dollar.

However, the strength of the renminbi exchange rate relative to the US dollar and the euro has raised the concern of the international public to the renminbi once again. The remarks about the renminbi becoming the biggest winner in this debt crisis have spurred even the renminbi to be placed behind the US dollar and the euro. "The third largest currency" status.

Xie Taifeng resolutely refuted this view. He said that the renminbi’s position in the world is not achieved by subjective wishes, but depends on China’s economic, technological, and financial strength. It is impossible to replace the current status of the US dollar in a short time. Although China’s total GDP exceeds that of Japan, the appreciation of exchange rates occupies a large part, while China’s per capita GDP ranks very backward. The rapid economic development is at the expense of the environment and health, and the quality of GDP growth is not high. Therefore, the final status of the renminbi still depends on strength.

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