Restriction policy will not loosen housing prices and transform into a foregone conclusion

Many transactions continued to shrunk, branded housing companies cut prices and throw cargoes, Foshan restricted purchases and emergency halts, and loan thresholds were further raised. “Silver Sine” has just passed halfway, and this troubled property market has attracted much attention.

One-box is the buyer's strong price cuts, one-box is the seller's increasingly tight capital chain, the property market exactly where to go? Yesterday, Qin Hong, deputy director of Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and researcher of the International Finance Research Center, was held at the Zijin Mountain Summit organized by the Nanjing Real Estate Association, First Finance, and 365 Real Estate Home Furnishing Co., Ltd., “Real Estate, Developing in Transition”. Zhong Wei and other well-known domestic real estate, financial experts and real estate celebrities, surprising astonishing consistent view: limit purchase policy will not relax, developers should take the initiative to lower prices and transition.

First-tier cities will not change their price adjustment policy. ■ Qin Hong, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, has announced that after a few hours of “restricted purchase” policies were suspended in Foshan, the direction of real estate regulation has attracted attention. At the summit, Qin Hong bluntly stated: At present, there is no turning condition for real estate control policies.

“Although the first-tier cities have experienced market changes in volume declines and price adjustments, but in the absence of a trend and consistency in the national real estate market, these markets have adjusted and changed, which is not enough to cause changes in real estate control policies. Qin Hong said, “The country needs to control real estate, which is the demand for the entire economy. At a higher level, the impact of real estate on the national economy is wide, impact is great, and affects the people’s livelihood. In fact, the real estate industry’s control policies in the past Focus on the overall situation."

Qin Hong said that in terms of specific policies, there may be room for optimization. However, from the policy direction, controlling investment demand, investing in the housing market, and vigorously building affordable housing, these two directions are undoubtedly certain.

However, she also believes that the space in the Chinese real estate market is still very large. From the housing demand point of view, at least three areas of demand can still support real estate growth:

First, the steady growth in the supply of affordable housing. Second, the demand for commercial housing continues to increase. With the increase of income level and the change of family structure, people's demand for improved housing is relatively large. In the third aspect, urban development is cascaded and the population flows upwards.

“The past decade has been a feast for the development of first-tier cities. Then in the next decade, the second, third and fourth-tier cities will also face some new development opportunities.”

She believes that the real estate industry is bound to enter the transformation of the real estate industry, "the 12-fifth planning countries to determine the economic growth target is 7%, lower than the lowest years in previous years.

This shows that the country is conscious and actively controls the speed of economic growth, and it must improve the quality of economic growth. ”

Restricted purchase or long-term housing prices should be cut early in time â–  Well-known economist and international financial research center Zhong Wei Zhong Wei yesterday in the "2012, the starting point of external recession and internal transformation" keynote speech, the real estate industry is facing a price reduction in the short term Inevitably, "It's better to descend than to descend, and it's better to fall earlier than to descend."

He analyzed that financial pressure will increase in the second half of this year and some small and medium-sized enterprises will withdraw from the market in the first half of next year. “External recession, internal gradual transition, facing the challenge is the best choice, and it is fortunate to expect that the policy or regulation will see a turn for the better, not face it. Challenges and transformational wise measures." Therefore, in the current market, price reduction is the absolute truth.

However, he said frankly that the price cut does not bring confidence to all parties. "Under the control, the market will continue to adjust until it is stopped." Zhong Wei said so. And he believes that this situation will last at least 2 years. “For the current real estate companies, price reduction is something they have no way to avoid and they are unwilling to choose, but there is no way to avoid the choice.” Zhong Wei called for the majority of housing enterprises to decline as dark as the decline, and as late as falling, , otherwise market confidence will be more fragile.

In terms of the medium term, “various tighter policies will continue, especially the purchase restrictions and loan-limitation policies. Since the total amount of funds will remain tight next year, this does not mean that there will be real estate purchase, storage, development, and mortgage loans. The possibility of loosening, as well as the restriction of purchase policies, can only be a policy that cannot be achieved, so the policy will be long-term, universal, and standardized."

He believes that if there is no subprime mortgage crisis, China’s swing in real estate policies may be even longer. “Repression of real estate policies is certainly not a short-term one, but will be implemented in the mid to long-term in the future. There is no doubt that real estate has passed the golden growth period. "The real estate industry has changed from a leading pillar industry with substantial returns to an important industry that is synchronised with economic growth and gradually enjoys average industry returns, but it is no longer a pillar industry.

For the advice given to homebuyers, Zhong Wei said, “If you buy a house for living, your life is limited. Therefore, when you buy a house and buy a house, you should earnestly enjoy it and guarantee the quality of your life. The 2011 growth rate of broad money Still at 14% to 15%, capital must have investment channels, buying a house is still a good return on investment, but it is certainly not the fastest return on investment." Lu Rongrong VS home purchase limit who buy the most housing price?

â–  CEO of Shengshi Taiping Investment Management Co., Ltd. Chen Limin â–  CEO of Xinghao Capital Zhao Hanzhong As an entrepreneur representative, Zhao Hanzhong and Chen Limin expressed different opinions on the most important factors affecting the property market. Chen Limin first raised this issue of concern: What factors in the property market are the most affected? Some people say that there are restrictions on purchases, some say that they limit the loans, and others say they limit prices. Chen Limin believes that limited-loan influence is limited and the limit price is only a cat-and-mouse game. The policy that really affects the property market is purchase restriction.

Chen Limin analyzed that from the perspective of limiting loans, it is the general public who really needs loans. If you want to control the growth mode of the property market or adjust the direction of development, the influence of limited loans is limited, and the rich can continue to buy houses and continue to push prices down. high. In some places, the limit price is actually a "cat and mouse" game, the price can not be only under, then the developer will do? To raise the price very high, the following drop will fall, and if it does not fall, it will not fall. This policy is useless for developers.

He stressed that the real impact of the current and the next few years of the property market is the purchase limit. Chen Limin believes that if the long-term restrictions on the purchase needs of the people, the society will have a lot of problems, one day will force the government to cancel the purchase restriction policy, but this does not mean that the regulation of the property market will be loosened.

Zhao Hanzhong believes that the large number of affordable housing listings will have a greater impact on the property market than the purchase restriction, and the purchase restriction policy will always end. In addition, Zhao Hanzhong put forward a proposal to buy a house: As the monetary tightening of the regulation, real estate, especially high-end real estate began to decline, this is a rare window period, but it will not exceed the end of next year, “Now is not a good time to sell, but after the Spring Festival is The time to buy a house, especially if you really want to buy or improve the home buyers. If it is an investment, it should be more reliable investment in real estate funds."

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