Real estate regulation does not relax Macro policy has fine-tuned

At present, China’s economy faces many external and internal uncertainties and challenges. There are also internationally “seeking China’s view”. In this sensitive period, the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in the first half of December.

With Vice Premier Li Keqiang’s emphasis on “implementing real estate regulation and control policies”, various “haircuts” before the meeting showed that neither the real estate regulation nor the broader macroeconomic regulation and control has significantly opened up.

The overall regulation remains unchanged, with emphasis on structural tax cuts. For the previously real estate with obvious bubbles, the government's attitude is still to maintain control.

Recently, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, emphasized in an exclusive interview with Phoenix Satellite TV: “We must further complete the task of starting and construction of affordable housing so that it can be completed and delivered to ensure quality and fair distribution. It will continue to implement real estate regulation and control policies and promote the long-term healthy and stable development of the real estate market."

Looking ahead to the end of the year and next year’s policy trends, Lu political commissar of the Industrial Bank’s chief economist said that it is expected that the statutory deposit reserve ratio will be fully reduced and will not appear until next year. It is expected that the interest rate policy will not be adjusted during the year, and whether it will adjust the benchmark interest rate next year still has great uncertainty. The more likely policy is to give financial institutions greater autonomy in pricing within the limits of the base interest rate for deposits and the base rate for loans.

The Lu political commissar also predicted that this year's central economic work conference should continue to set the tone for the policy of 2012 as a "smooth monetary policy" and an "active fiscal policy." The stability of monetary policy is still to emphasize forward-lookingness, flexibility, and targeting. Sex; while the "positive" of fiscal policy is mainly focused on "structural tax cuts."

However, the macroeconomic operation also faces a series of uncertainties.

The first is that the decline in industrial growth sent a warning signal. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 412.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, which was further lower than the growth rate of 27% from January to September. In October, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 438.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 12.5%.

SMEs are under pressure to increase their costs, and corporate profits are shrinking. From January to October, the cost of main business income per 100 yuan of industrial enterprises above designated size was 85.1 yuan, and the profit rate was only 6.04%. Among them, the profit rate of non-state-owned enterprises' main business is lower than that of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises. The profit rate of private enterprises' main business is the lowest, only a meager 5.69%.

Non-state-owned enterprises not only have lower profitability, but their future development is also not optimistic. In the second half of this month, HSBC announced its initial statistics for manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI). The initial value of 48.0% in November was much lower than the market expected. In October, the final value of HSBC PMI was still 51.1%. In early November, the value has fallen to a 32-month low.

Li Qingyang, an investment adviser to Everbright Securities, believes that HSBC PMI has always been more concerned about SMEs. This data can be interpreted as that under the background of the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, SMEs are under greater pressure.

Wang Jianxiang, deputy director of the ministry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out at the meeting in Beijing on Saturday that the current SMEs have "three difficulties and one difficulty." The first high of “three highs” refers to high production costs, causing the greatest pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises, including labor costs, production factor costs, land resource costs, etc.; the second high is high financing costs, after the realization of monetary policy, from Banks and financial institutions are more difficult to get money, even if they get the loan cost is relatively high; the third highest is that SMEs generally reflect the relatively high tax burden. One difficulty is that it is difficult to recruit workers.

Many market analysts are concerned that the current economic situation is much the same as in the fourth quarter of 2008. This year, regardless of the situation of investment in fixed assets or imports and exports, especially in October, the trend of some indicators is not particularly satisfactory.

However, a researcher who is close to the government believes that although all indicators have come down this year, the decline has not been significant and they have remained stable. The soft landing of the economy from a relatively rapid growth in the previous period to a steady increase is very obvious. The fall of this economic trend is mainly the result of macro-active regulation. The decline is not a major change in economic fundamentals, but mainly due to the introduction of a large number of economic stimulus policies for economic growth in the previous two years, which is a normal reaction after the disappearance of policies.

Intensified support for non-public economy in the market period The above-mentioned sources believe that the reason why the economic downturn is supported is that the growth rate of investment is stronger than expected at the beginning of the year; in the first three quarters of this year, China’s private investment was very active, and private investment accounted for a fixed The proportion of investment in assets further increased to 59%, and the growth rate of private investment was 34.2%, which was 9.3% higher than the growth rate of investment in fixed assets of the whole society. The current market price situation has increased the willingness of enterprises to invest, although government investment is falling, but Private investment is not lack of funds, but the focus is whether the government can further implement the 16 non-public economy, and further liberalize the non-public economy in terms of administrative control and monopoly.

In fact, the high level of government has given great attention to the severe state of survival of SMEs. After Wenzhou’s business owners fled, Premier Wen Jiabao went to Zhejiang to conduct research. The government then researched and determined financial and fiscal policy measures to support the development of small and micro enterprises. The meeting proposed six financial support policies and three fiscal and taxation support policies, and proposed to properly increase the tolerance for bad loans for small and micro enterprises. Markets should be followed to reduce administrative interventions. Increase the VAT business tax threshold for small and micro enterprises and cancel Relieve some of the fees and charges for enterprises.

The "First Financial Daily" noted that Zhang Dejiang, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, emphasized the need to increase policy implementation and create a favorable environment for development while attending the Fourth National Commendation Meeting for Advanced Private Enterprises in Employment and Social Security. Encourage and support the development of non-public ownership economy, and promote private enterprises to continue to make new and greater contributions to the stable expansion of employment and building a harmonious labor relationship.

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