Euro expands its rebound space and has yet to reverse its disadvantage

The Troika, which is composed of the European Union (EU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank (ECB), is expected to implement the latest aid plan, which was enacted last October, in mid-January. In the coming weeks, Greece must promote a series of policies that are not welcome domestically, such as the reform of pensions, the acceleration of asset privatization, and the improvement of the labor market. Otherwise, it will be in trouble with the "troika" negotiations. . The Greek government’s spokesman, Pantelis Kapsis, said yesterday that unless he immediately reached an agreement with the international creditors on the second US$130 billion in aid payments, Greece would face the risk of leaving the euro zone.

However, Germany’s adjusted unemployment rate in the December quarter was 6.8%, the lowest level recorded since 1998, while Germany’s average unemployment rate in 2011 was the lowest since 1991. In the context of the severe European debt crisis, the German labor market continues to perform strongly.

Benefiting from the good performance of the German job market, the euro/dollar broke through the 1.3000 integer barrier yesterday, expanding the rebound space and upside the 1.3080 line, which is the starting point for the falling market at the end of December.

Technically, after the exchange rate recovered 1.3000, the bullish confidence was strengthened, but it is still too early to talk about reversing the disadvantage. In the short-term, holding 1.3000 as a precondition, breaking the 1.3080 signal is a continuation of the rebound, otherwise it is still only determined as a fall trend in the repair market. Investors can focus on the concussion of 1.3000-1.3080, and still need to be cautious when operating. Stabilizers should wait for the right-side trade after the trend transition, while the activists can take a short position again, taking 1.3080 as the risk control and 1.2980-1.3000 as the short-term target. If the rally support is lost, the exchange rate will resume its decline.

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